Is only 4% of original forest left in the US?












52















The 2009 video The Story of Stuff makes several rather incredible claims. For example:




Where I live, in the United States, we have less than 4% of our original forests left.




My gut feeling tells me to be skeptical of this number. Is it correct?










share|improve this question

























  • Folks, I nuked close to a hundred comments (here and on answers) debating the definition of "original". We really don't care about your favorite definition of it. We probably are not quite interested either if your find this claim misleading. It is what it is. If you have a better definition of original, write an answer, not a rant under an answer that uses a definition you disagree with. Thank you. There is space for different takes on this, be tolerant. Further definitions discussions will be nuked on sight.

    – Sklivvz
    Jan 16 at 8:42


















52















The 2009 video The Story of Stuff makes several rather incredible claims. For example:




Where I live, in the United States, we have less than 4% of our original forests left.




My gut feeling tells me to be skeptical of this number. Is it correct?










share|improve this question

























  • Folks, I nuked close to a hundred comments (here and on answers) debating the definition of "original". We really don't care about your favorite definition of it. We probably are not quite interested either if your find this claim misleading. It is what it is. If you have a better definition of original, write an answer, not a rant under an answer that uses a definition you disagree with. Thank you. There is space for different takes on this, be tolerant. Further definitions discussions will be nuked on sight.

    – Sklivvz
    Jan 16 at 8:42
















52












52








52


6






The 2009 video The Story of Stuff makes several rather incredible claims. For example:




Where I live, in the United States, we have less than 4% of our original forests left.




My gut feeling tells me to be skeptical of this number. Is it correct?










share|improve this question
















The 2009 video The Story of Stuff makes several rather incredible claims. For example:




Where I live, in the United States, we have less than 4% of our original forests left.




My gut feeling tells me to be skeptical of this number. Is it correct?







united-states environment






share|improve this question















share|improve this question













share|improve this question




share|improve this question








edited Jan 11 at 11:15







Jishin Noben

















asked Jan 11 at 3:07









Jishin NobenJishin Noben

365127




365127













  • Folks, I nuked close to a hundred comments (here and on answers) debating the definition of "original". We really don't care about your favorite definition of it. We probably are not quite interested either if your find this claim misleading. It is what it is. If you have a better definition of original, write an answer, not a rant under an answer that uses a definition you disagree with. Thank you. There is space for different takes on this, be tolerant. Further definitions discussions will be nuked on sight.

    – Sklivvz
    Jan 16 at 8:42





















  • Folks, I nuked close to a hundred comments (here and on answers) debating the definition of "original". We really don't care about your favorite definition of it. We probably are not quite interested either if your find this claim misleading. It is what it is. If you have a better definition of original, write an answer, not a rant under an answer that uses a definition you disagree with. Thank you. There is space for different takes on this, be tolerant. Further definitions discussions will be nuked on sight.

    – Sklivvz
    Jan 16 at 8:42



















Folks, I nuked close to a hundred comments (here and on answers) debating the definition of "original". We really don't care about your favorite definition of it. We probably are not quite interested either if your find this claim misleading. It is what it is. If you have a better definition of original, write an answer, not a rant under an answer that uses a definition you disagree with. Thank you. There is space for different takes on this, be tolerant. Further definitions discussions will be nuked on sight.

– Sklivvz
Jan 16 at 8:42







Folks, I nuked close to a hundred comments (here and on answers) debating the definition of "original". We really don't care about your favorite definition of it. We probably are not quite interested either if your find this claim misleading. It is what it is. If you have a better definition of original, write an answer, not a rant under an answer that uses a definition you disagree with. Thank you. There is space for different takes on this, be tolerant. Further definitions discussions will be nuked on sight.

– Sklivvz
Jan 16 at 8:42












3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes


















75














Yes, this figure is consistent with estimates from 20 years ago.



The 1995 paper Endangered Ecosystems of the United States:
A Preliminary Assessment of Loss and Degradation collates some relevant estimates from the literature in Appendix A.




50 United States



85% of original primary (virgin) forest destroyed by late 1980's (Postel and Ryan 1991).



90% loss of ancient (old-growth) forests (World Resources Institute 1992).



[...]



48 Conterminous States



ca. 95-98% of virgin forests destroyed by 1990 (estimated from map in Findley 1990 and
commonly estimated by other authors, e.g., Postel and Ryan 1991).



99% loss of primary (virgin) eastern deciduous forest (Allen and Jackson 1992).




It goes on to break the USA down into smaller regions, and cites consistent statistics for those - e.g.:




>99% loss of virgin or old-growth forests in New Hampshire (D. D. Sperduto, New
Hampshire Department of Resources and Economic Development, Natural Heritage
Inventory, Concord, N.H., personal communication).




This shows it is more than one or two papers making these nationwide estimates - they are shored up by several ecologists who have reached similar conclusions in different regions.





This article is concerned not only about ecosystems being paved over, but also loss in quality:




Ecosystems can be lost or impoverished in basically two ways. The most obvious kind of
loss is quantitative--the conversion of a native prairie to a corn field or to a parking lot.
Quantitative losses, in principle, can be measured easily by a decline in areal extent of a
discrete ecosystem type (i.e., one that can be mapped). The second kind of loss is
qualitative and involves a change or degradation in the structure, function, or composition
of an ecosystem (Franklin et al. 1981; Noss 1990). At some level of degradation, an
ecosystem ceases to be natural.




So, these figures do NOT represent clear-felling of these forests - the impacts may be more subtle.



However, as a literature review, it is dependent on the individual papers for their definitions of "original", "virgin", "old-growth" etc., and hence the translations in the quotes above.



I tried to follow up on some of the references to see how they used the terms. I had limited success. Ironically, the papers from the 1980s and 1990s are difficult to access, but a 1923 paper they cite is freely available online!



Reynolds, R. V., and A. H. Pierson. 1923. Lumber cut of the United States, 1870-1920.
USDA Bulletin 1119, Washington, D.C. is cited to support that




96% of virgin forests of northeastern and central states eliminated by 1920 (Reynolds and
Pierson 1923).




The cited bulletin, on page 8, explains:




The Northeast and Central States had each cut 96 per cent of their original areas of virgin timber. The Lakes States had cut 90 per cent, and the South was not far behind.




That bulletin is mainly concerned with the effect on the declining yields of ongoing timber production and its ability to serve markets after World War I, rather than the ecological issues.






share|improve this answer





















  • 11





    Our etymology-loving friends assure me that "conterminous" and "coterminous" are both correct even though the spelling quoted here looks wrong to my eyes.

    – Oddthinking
    Jan 11 at 6:38











  • For context though this applies only to virgin forest. Most of the forest in the US has been cut down at some point in time. But, most of it has also grown back; this is not saying that he US used to have 25 times more forest than it does now. According to the US Forest service, the 1630 forest cover was about 40% more than it is today.

    – kingledion
    Jan 20 at 3:05



















22














Entirely possible



I'm assuming that by "original forests" the video refers to old-growth forests, and that the point considered 100% is the total forest area of year 1630.



U.S. Forest Resource Facts and Historical Trends 1952-2012 provides a graph showing forest distribution by age:



enter image description here



As you can see, forests older than 150 years account for about 15-20% of western forests (which themselves constitute about a half of US forest land, see page 8 of the brochure). This brings us to 7-10% of present-day forests which have been growing for 150 years or longer. Since the total forest area shrunk from 1,023 million acres in 1630 to 766 million acres in 2012, this number corresponds to 5-7.5% of original forests in 1630.



According to Wikipedia, original hardwood forests needs to be at least 150 years old in order to develop old-growth characteristics in one or two generations of trees. There are other criteria which can disqualify a forest from being old-growth even if it's old enough, primarily significant human disturbance.



So, the upper estimate for old-growth US forests would be 7.5%. The lower estimate could be obtained by e.g. summing the area of old-growth US forests listed on Wikipedia which amount to some 20 million acres, or less than 2%. Thus the claimed 4% estimate seems perfectly reasonable.






share|improve this answer

































    11














    According to the U.S. Forest Service publication U.S. Forest Resource Facts
    and Historical Trends:




    In 1630, the estimated area of U.S. forest land was
    1,023 million acres or about 46 percent of the total
    land area. Since 1630, about 256 million acres of forest
    land have been converted to other uses




    So 75% of the original forest land is still forest land.



    However, much of the forest land has been cut at least once.






    share|improve this answer































      3 Answers
      3






      active

      oldest

      votes








      3 Answers
      3






      active

      oldest

      votes









      active

      oldest

      votes






      active

      oldest

      votes









      75














      Yes, this figure is consistent with estimates from 20 years ago.



      The 1995 paper Endangered Ecosystems of the United States:
      A Preliminary Assessment of Loss and Degradation collates some relevant estimates from the literature in Appendix A.




      50 United States



      85% of original primary (virgin) forest destroyed by late 1980's (Postel and Ryan 1991).



      90% loss of ancient (old-growth) forests (World Resources Institute 1992).



      [...]



      48 Conterminous States



      ca. 95-98% of virgin forests destroyed by 1990 (estimated from map in Findley 1990 and
      commonly estimated by other authors, e.g., Postel and Ryan 1991).



      99% loss of primary (virgin) eastern deciduous forest (Allen and Jackson 1992).




      It goes on to break the USA down into smaller regions, and cites consistent statistics for those - e.g.:




      >99% loss of virgin or old-growth forests in New Hampshire (D. D. Sperduto, New
      Hampshire Department of Resources and Economic Development, Natural Heritage
      Inventory, Concord, N.H., personal communication).




      This shows it is more than one or two papers making these nationwide estimates - they are shored up by several ecologists who have reached similar conclusions in different regions.





      This article is concerned not only about ecosystems being paved over, but also loss in quality:




      Ecosystems can be lost or impoverished in basically two ways. The most obvious kind of
      loss is quantitative--the conversion of a native prairie to a corn field or to a parking lot.
      Quantitative losses, in principle, can be measured easily by a decline in areal extent of a
      discrete ecosystem type (i.e., one that can be mapped). The second kind of loss is
      qualitative and involves a change or degradation in the structure, function, or composition
      of an ecosystem (Franklin et al. 1981; Noss 1990). At some level of degradation, an
      ecosystem ceases to be natural.




      So, these figures do NOT represent clear-felling of these forests - the impacts may be more subtle.



      However, as a literature review, it is dependent on the individual papers for their definitions of "original", "virgin", "old-growth" etc., and hence the translations in the quotes above.



      I tried to follow up on some of the references to see how they used the terms. I had limited success. Ironically, the papers from the 1980s and 1990s are difficult to access, but a 1923 paper they cite is freely available online!



      Reynolds, R. V., and A. H. Pierson. 1923. Lumber cut of the United States, 1870-1920.
      USDA Bulletin 1119, Washington, D.C. is cited to support that




      96% of virgin forests of northeastern and central states eliminated by 1920 (Reynolds and
      Pierson 1923).




      The cited bulletin, on page 8, explains:




      The Northeast and Central States had each cut 96 per cent of their original areas of virgin timber. The Lakes States had cut 90 per cent, and the South was not far behind.




      That bulletin is mainly concerned with the effect on the declining yields of ongoing timber production and its ability to serve markets after World War I, rather than the ecological issues.






      share|improve this answer





















      • 11





        Our etymology-loving friends assure me that "conterminous" and "coterminous" are both correct even though the spelling quoted here looks wrong to my eyes.

        – Oddthinking
        Jan 11 at 6:38











      • For context though this applies only to virgin forest. Most of the forest in the US has been cut down at some point in time. But, most of it has also grown back; this is not saying that he US used to have 25 times more forest than it does now. According to the US Forest service, the 1630 forest cover was about 40% more than it is today.

        – kingledion
        Jan 20 at 3:05
















      75














      Yes, this figure is consistent with estimates from 20 years ago.



      The 1995 paper Endangered Ecosystems of the United States:
      A Preliminary Assessment of Loss and Degradation collates some relevant estimates from the literature in Appendix A.




      50 United States



      85% of original primary (virgin) forest destroyed by late 1980's (Postel and Ryan 1991).



      90% loss of ancient (old-growth) forests (World Resources Institute 1992).



      [...]



      48 Conterminous States



      ca. 95-98% of virgin forests destroyed by 1990 (estimated from map in Findley 1990 and
      commonly estimated by other authors, e.g., Postel and Ryan 1991).



      99% loss of primary (virgin) eastern deciduous forest (Allen and Jackson 1992).




      It goes on to break the USA down into smaller regions, and cites consistent statistics for those - e.g.:




      >99% loss of virgin or old-growth forests in New Hampshire (D. D. Sperduto, New
      Hampshire Department of Resources and Economic Development, Natural Heritage
      Inventory, Concord, N.H., personal communication).




      This shows it is more than one or two papers making these nationwide estimates - they are shored up by several ecologists who have reached similar conclusions in different regions.





      This article is concerned not only about ecosystems being paved over, but also loss in quality:




      Ecosystems can be lost or impoverished in basically two ways. The most obvious kind of
      loss is quantitative--the conversion of a native prairie to a corn field or to a parking lot.
      Quantitative losses, in principle, can be measured easily by a decline in areal extent of a
      discrete ecosystem type (i.e., one that can be mapped). The second kind of loss is
      qualitative and involves a change or degradation in the structure, function, or composition
      of an ecosystem (Franklin et al. 1981; Noss 1990). At some level of degradation, an
      ecosystem ceases to be natural.




      So, these figures do NOT represent clear-felling of these forests - the impacts may be more subtle.



      However, as a literature review, it is dependent on the individual papers for their definitions of "original", "virgin", "old-growth" etc., and hence the translations in the quotes above.



      I tried to follow up on some of the references to see how they used the terms. I had limited success. Ironically, the papers from the 1980s and 1990s are difficult to access, but a 1923 paper they cite is freely available online!



      Reynolds, R. V., and A. H. Pierson. 1923. Lumber cut of the United States, 1870-1920.
      USDA Bulletin 1119, Washington, D.C. is cited to support that




      96% of virgin forests of northeastern and central states eliminated by 1920 (Reynolds and
      Pierson 1923).




      The cited bulletin, on page 8, explains:




      The Northeast and Central States had each cut 96 per cent of their original areas of virgin timber. The Lakes States had cut 90 per cent, and the South was not far behind.




      That bulletin is mainly concerned with the effect on the declining yields of ongoing timber production and its ability to serve markets after World War I, rather than the ecological issues.






      share|improve this answer





















      • 11





        Our etymology-loving friends assure me that "conterminous" and "coterminous" are both correct even though the spelling quoted here looks wrong to my eyes.

        – Oddthinking
        Jan 11 at 6:38











      • For context though this applies only to virgin forest. Most of the forest in the US has been cut down at some point in time. But, most of it has also grown back; this is not saying that he US used to have 25 times more forest than it does now. According to the US Forest service, the 1630 forest cover was about 40% more than it is today.

        – kingledion
        Jan 20 at 3:05














      75












      75








      75







      Yes, this figure is consistent with estimates from 20 years ago.



      The 1995 paper Endangered Ecosystems of the United States:
      A Preliminary Assessment of Loss and Degradation collates some relevant estimates from the literature in Appendix A.




      50 United States



      85% of original primary (virgin) forest destroyed by late 1980's (Postel and Ryan 1991).



      90% loss of ancient (old-growth) forests (World Resources Institute 1992).



      [...]



      48 Conterminous States



      ca. 95-98% of virgin forests destroyed by 1990 (estimated from map in Findley 1990 and
      commonly estimated by other authors, e.g., Postel and Ryan 1991).



      99% loss of primary (virgin) eastern deciduous forest (Allen and Jackson 1992).




      It goes on to break the USA down into smaller regions, and cites consistent statistics for those - e.g.:




      >99% loss of virgin or old-growth forests in New Hampshire (D. D. Sperduto, New
      Hampshire Department of Resources and Economic Development, Natural Heritage
      Inventory, Concord, N.H., personal communication).




      This shows it is more than one or two papers making these nationwide estimates - they are shored up by several ecologists who have reached similar conclusions in different regions.





      This article is concerned not only about ecosystems being paved over, but also loss in quality:




      Ecosystems can be lost or impoverished in basically two ways. The most obvious kind of
      loss is quantitative--the conversion of a native prairie to a corn field or to a parking lot.
      Quantitative losses, in principle, can be measured easily by a decline in areal extent of a
      discrete ecosystem type (i.e., one that can be mapped). The second kind of loss is
      qualitative and involves a change or degradation in the structure, function, or composition
      of an ecosystem (Franklin et al. 1981; Noss 1990). At some level of degradation, an
      ecosystem ceases to be natural.




      So, these figures do NOT represent clear-felling of these forests - the impacts may be more subtle.



      However, as a literature review, it is dependent on the individual papers for their definitions of "original", "virgin", "old-growth" etc., and hence the translations in the quotes above.



      I tried to follow up on some of the references to see how they used the terms. I had limited success. Ironically, the papers from the 1980s and 1990s are difficult to access, but a 1923 paper they cite is freely available online!



      Reynolds, R. V., and A. H. Pierson. 1923. Lumber cut of the United States, 1870-1920.
      USDA Bulletin 1119, Washington, D.C. is cited to support that




      96% of virgin forests of northeastern and central states eliminated by 1920 (Reynolds and
      Pierson 1923).




      The cited bulletin, on page 8, explains:




      The Northeast and Central States had each cut 96 per cent of their original areas of virgin timber. The Lakes States had cut 90 per cent, and the South was not far behind.




      That bulletin is mainly concerned with the effect on the declining yields of ongoing timber production and its ability to serve markets after World War I, rather than the ecological issues.






      share|improve this answer















      Yes, this figure is consistent with estimates from 20 years ago.



      The 1995 paper Endangered Ecosystems of the United States:
      A Preliminary Assessment of Loss and Degradation collates some relevant estimates from the literature in Appendix A.




      50 United States



      85% of original primary (virgin) forest destroyed by late 1980's (Postel and Ryan 1991).



      90% loss of ancient (old-growth) forests (World Resources Institute 1992).



      [...]



      48 Conterminous States



      ca. 95-98% of virgin forests destroyed by 1990 (estimated from map in Findley 1990 and
      commonly estimated by other authors, e.g., Postel and Ryan 1991).



      99% loss of primary (virgin) eastern deciduous forest (Allen and Jackson 1992).




      It goes on to break the USA down into smaller regions, and cites consistent statistics for those - e.g.:




      >99% loss of virgin or old-growth forests in New Hampshire (D. D. Sperduto, New
      Hampshire Department of Resources and Economic Development, Natural Heritage
      Inventory, Concord, N.H., personal communication).




      This shows it is more than one or two papers making these nationwide estimates - they are shored up by several ecologists who have reached similar conclusions in different regions.





      This article is concerned not only about ecosystems being paved over, but also loss in quality:




      Ecosystems can be lost or impoverished in basically two ways. The most obvious kind of
      loss is quantitative--the conversion of a native prairie to a corn field or to a parking lot.
      Quantitative losses, in principle, can be measured easily by a decline in areal extent of a
      discrete ecosystem type (i.e., one that can be mapped). The second kind of loss is
      qualitative and involves a change or degradation in the structure, function, or composition
      of an ecosystem (Franklin et al. 1981; Noss 1990). At some level of degradation, an
      ecosystem ceases to be natural.




      So, these figures do NOT represent clear-felling of these forests - the impacts may be more subtle.



      However, as a literature review, it is dependent on the individual papers for their definitions of "original", "virgin", "old-growth" etc., and hence the translations in the quotes above.



      I tried to follow up on some of the references to see how they used the terms. I had limited success. Ironically, the papers from the 1980s and 1990s are difficult to access, but a 1923 paper they cite is freely available online!



      Reynolds, R. V., and A. H. Pierson. 1923. Lumber cut of the United States, 1870-1920.
      USDA Bulletin 1119, Washington, D.C. is cited to support that




      96% of virgin forests of northeastern and central states eliminated by 1920 (Reynolds and
      Pierson 1923).




      The cited bulletin, on page 8, explains:




      The Northeast and Central States had each cut 96 per cent of their original areas of virgin timber. The Lakes States had cut 90 per cent, and the South was not far behind.




      That bulletin is mainly concerned with the effect on the declining yields of ongoing timber production and its ability to serve markets after World War I, rather than the ecological issues.







      share|improve this answer














      share|improve this answer



      share|improve this answer








      edited Jan 11 at 22:18

























      answered Jan 11 at 5:14









      OddthinkingOddthinking

      101k31420527




      101k31420527








      • 11





        Our etymology-loving friends assure me that "conterminous" and "coterminous" are both correct even though the spelling quoted here looks wrong to my eyes.

        – Oddthinking
        Jan 11 at 6:38











      • For context though this applies only to virgin forest. Most of the forest in the US has been cut down at some point in time. But, most of it has also grown back; this is not saying that he US used to have 25 times more forest than it does now. According to the US Forest service, the 1630 forest cover was about 40% more than it is today.

        – kingledion
        Jan 20 at 3:05














      • 11





        Our etymology-loving friends assure me that "conterminous" and "coterminous" are both correct even though the spelling quoted here looks wrong to my eyes.

        – Oddthinking
        Jan 11 at 6:38











      • For context though this applies only to virgin forest. Most of the forest in the US has been cut down at some point in time. But, most of it has also grown back; this is not saying that he US used to have 25 times more forest than it does now. According to the US Forest service, the 1630 forest cover was about 40% more than it is today.

        – kingledion
        Jan 20 at 3:05








      11




      11





      Our etymology-loving friends assure me that "conterminous" and "coterminous" are both correct even though the spelling quoted here looks wrong to my eyes.

      – Oddthinking
      Jan 11 at 6:38





      Our etymology-loving friends assure me that "conterminous" and "coterminous" are both correct even though the spelling quoted here looks wrong to my eyes.

      – Oddthinking
      Jan 11 at 6:38













      For context though this applies only to virgin forest. Most of the forest in the US has been cut down at some point in time. But, most of it has also grown back; this is not saying that he US used to have 25 times more forest than it does now. According to the US Forest service, the 1630 forest cover was about 40% more than it is today.

      – kingledion
      Jan 20 at 3:05





      For context though this applies only to virgin forest. Most of the forest in the US has been cut down at some point in time. But, most of it has also grown back; this is not saying that he US used to have 25 times more forest than it does now. According to the US Forest service, the 1630 forest cover was about 40% more than it is today.

      – kingledion
      Jan 20 at 3:05











      22














      Entirely possible



      I'm assuming that by "original forests" the video refers to old-growth forests, and that the point considered 100% is the total forest area of year 1630.



      U.S. Forest Resource Facts and Historical Trends 1952-2012 provides a graph showing forest distribution by age:



      enter image description here



      As you can see, forests older than 150 years account for about 15-20% of western forests (which themselves constitute about a half of US forest land, see page 8 of the brochure). This brings us to 7-10% of present-day forests which have been growing for 150 years or longer. Since the total forest area shrunk from 1,023 million acres in 1630 to 766 million acres in 2012, this number corresponds to 5-7.5% of original forests in 1630.



      According to Wikipedia, original hardwood forests needs to be at least 150 years old in order to develop old-growth characteristics in one or two generations of trees. There are other criteria which can disqualify a forest from being old-growth even if it's old enough, primarily significant human disturbance.



      So, the upper estimate for old-growth US forests would be 7.5%. The lower estimate could be obtained by e.g. summing the area of old-growth US forests listed on Wikipedia which amount to some 20 million acres, or less than 2%. Thus the claimed 4% estimate seems perfectly reasonable.






      share|improve this answer






























        22














        Entirely possible



        I'm assuming that by "original forests" the video refers to old-growth forests, and that the point considered 100% is the total forest area of year 1630.



        U.S. Forest Resource Facts and Historical Trends 1952-2012 provides a graph showing forest distribution by age:



        enter image description here



        As you can see, forests older than 150 years account for about 15-20% of western forests (which themselves constitute about a half of US forest land, see page 8 of the brochure). This brings us to 7-10% of present-day forests which have been growing for 150 years or longer. Since the total forest area shrunk from 1,023 million acres in 1630 to 766 million acres in 2012, this number corresponds to 5-7.5% of original forests in 1630.



        According to Wikipedia, original hardwood forests needs to be at least 150 years old in order to develop old-growth characteristics in one or two generations of trees. There are other criteria which can disqualify a forest from being old-growth even if it's old enough, primarily significant human disturbance.



        So, the upper estimate for old-growth US forests would be 7.5%. The lower estimate could be obtained by e.g. summing the area of old-growth US forests listed on Wikipedia which amount to some 20 million acres, or less than 2%. Thus the claimed 4% estimate seems perfectly reasonable.






        share|improve this answer




























          22












          22








          22







          Entirely possible



          I'm assuming that by "original forests" the video refers to old-growth forests, and that the point considered 100% is the total forest area of year 1630.



          U.S. Forest Resource Facts and Historical Trends 1952-2012 provides a graph showing forest distribution by age:



          enter image description here



          As you can see, forests older than 150 years account for about 15-20% of western forests (which themselves constitute about a half of US forest land, see page 8 of the brochure). This brings us to 7-10% of present-day forests which have been growing for 150 years or longer. Since the total forest area shrunk from 1,023 million acres in 1630 to 766 million acres in 2012, this number corresponds to 5-7.5% of original forests in 1630.



          According to Wikipedia, original hardwood forests needs to be at least 150 years old in order to develop old-growth characteristics in one or two generations of trees. There are other criteria which can disqualify a forest from being old-growth even if it's old enough, primarily significant human disturbance.



          So, the upper estimate for old-growth US forests would be 7.5%. The lower estimate could be obtained by e.g. summing the area of old-growth US forests listed on Wikipedia which amount to some 20 million acres, or less than 2%. Thus the claimed 4% estimate seems perfectly reasonable.






          share|improve this answer















          Entirely possible



          I'm assuming that by "original forests" the video refers to old-growth forests, and that the point considered 100% is the total forest area of year 1630.



          U.S. Forest Resource Facts and Historical Trends 1952-2012 provides a graph showing forest distribution by age:



          enter image description here



          As you can see, forests older than 150 years account for about 15-20% of western forests (which themselves constitute about a half of US forest land, see page 8 of the brochure). This brings us to 7-10% of present-day forests which have been growing for 150 years or longer. Since the total forest area shrunk from 1,023 million acres in 1630 to 766 million acres in 2012, this number corresponds to 5-7.5% of original forests in 1630.



          According to Wikipedia, original hardwood forests needs to be at least 150 years old in order to develop old-growth characteristics in one or two generations of trees. There are other criteria which can disqualify a forest from being old-growth even if it's old enough, primarily significant human disturbance.



          So, the upper estimate for old-growth US forests would be 7.5%. The lower estimate could be obtained by e.g. summing the area of old-growth US forests listed on Wikipedia which amount to some 20 million acres, or less than 2%. Thus the claimed 4% estimate seems perfectly reasonable.







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          edited Jan 11 at 13:09

























          answered Jan 11 at 12:56









          Dmitry GrigoryevDmitry Grigoryev

          1,224416




          1,224416























              11














              According to the U.S. Forest Service publication U.S. Forest Resource Facts
              and Historical Trends:




              In 1630, the estimated area of U.S. forest land was
              1,023 million acres or about 46 percent of the total
              land area. Since 1630, about 256 million acres of forest
              land have been converted to other uses




              So 75% of the original forest land is still forest land.



              However, much of the forest land has been cut at least once.






              share|improve this answer




























                11














                According to the U.S. Forest Service publication U.S. Forest Resource Facts
                and Historical Trends:




                In 1630, the estimated area of U.S. forest land was
                1,023 million acres or about 46 percent of the total
                land area. Since 1630, about 256 million acres of forest
                land have been converted to other uses




                So 75% of the original forest land is still forest land.



                However, much of the forest land has been cut at least once.






                share|improve this answer


























                  11












                  11








                  11







                  According to the U.S. Forest Service publication U.S. Forest Resource Facts
                  and Historical Trends:




                  In 1630, the estimated area of U.S. forest land was
                  1,023 million acres or about 46 percent of the total
                  land area. Since 1630, about 256 million acres of forest
                  land have been converted to other uses




                  So 75% of the original forest land is still forest land.



                  However, much of the forest land has been cut at least once.






                  share|improve this answer













                  According to the U.S. Forest Service publication U.S. Forest Resource Facts
                  and Historical Trends:




                  In 1630, the estimated area of U.S. forest land was
                  1,023 million acres or about 46 percent of the total
                  land area. Since 1630, about 256 million acres of forest
                  land have been converted to other uses




                  So 75% of the original forest land is still forest land.



                  However, much of the forest land has been cut at least once.







                  share|improve this answer












                  share|improve this answer



                  share|improve this answer










                  answered Jan 11 at 12:03









                  DavePhDDavePhD

                  76.6k19326352




                  76.6k19326352















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