Why is it legitimate to assume that the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations hold everywhere?












3












$begingroup$


Let





  • $(Omega,mathcal A,operatorname P)$ be a probability space


  • $(mathcal F_t)_{tge0}$ be a filtration on $(Omega,mathcal A)$


  • $E$ be a Polish space and $mathcal E:=mathcal B(E)$


  • $(X_t)_{tge0}$ be an $E$-valued $mathcal F$-Markov process on $(Omega,mathcal A,operatorname P)$


  • $kappa_{s,:t}$ be a regular version of the conditional probability of $X_t$ given $X_s$, i.e. $kappa_{s,:t}$ is a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$ with $$operatorname Pleft[X_tin Bmid X_sright]=kappa_{s,:t}(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely for all }Binmathcal Etag1$$ for $s,tge0$


By the Markov property and $(1)$, $$operatorname Pleft[X_tin Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_{s,:t}(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely for all }Binmathcal Etext{ and }0le sle t.tag2$$




Usually, we want $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ to satisfy the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation $$kappa_{r,:t}=kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t},tag3$$ where the right-hand side denotes the composition of transiton kernels, for all $0le rle sle t$. However, with the definition of $kappa_{s,:t}$ as the conditional probability of $X_t$ given $X_s$, we've only got$^1$ $$kappa_{r,:t}(x,B)=(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B);;;text{for all }Binmathcal Etext{ and }operatorname Pcirc:X_r^{-1}text{-almost all }xin Etag4$$ for all $0le sle t$. However, in the literature, one is usually assuming that $(2)$ and $(3)$ hold together. Why is that possible?




I could imagine that the reason is the following: Since $E$ is Polish, given $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ with $(3)$ there is always a Markov process $tilde X$ on an other probability space with transition semigroup $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ and initial distribution $operatorname Pcirc:X_0^{-1}$. Is that the correct argument?





$^1$ Note that there is a crucial selection of a common null set for all $B$ happening in $(4)$. I guess this is legitimate as long as $mathcal E$ is countably generated. Maybe someone could comment on this.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    Something seems amiss in equation (3), as it would have a stray X_s variable on the right that is not on the left. If we stick to countable state space then (3) should be augmented by summing over the intermediate states x_s
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 1:09










  • $begingroup$
    @Michael What should be missing in equation $(3)$? The right-hand side is the composition of $kappa_{r,:s}$ and $kappa_{s,:t}$, which is again a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Jan 21 at 9:12












  • $begingroup$
    As I mentioned about summing over intermediate states for countable state spaces, $$ P[X_{r+s+t} = j| X_r=i] = sum_{w in S}P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i] neq underbrace{P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i]}_{mbox{stray $w$ index}}$$ Now it seems to me that writing a sum/integral/inner-product ("composition?") as if it is a multiplication leaves a lot of room for confusion.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 10:47












  • $begingroup$
    @Michael Actually, I have no idea what you mean. Are you saying that $kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t}$ is a confusing notation for the composition or are you saying that the whole concept of composition of transition kernels is confusing? Just to be sure, the definition is: $$(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B):=intkappa_{r,:s}(x,{rm d}y)kappa_{s,:t}(y,B);;;text{for }(x,B)in Etimesmathcal E.$$
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Jan 21 at 10:47










  • $begingroup$
    All of the above and more: $k_{r,s}k_{s,t}$ seems a multiplication of two scalar-valued functions...I would assume a "composition" is when you plug the output of a function into the input of another, like $f(g(x))$...I would not think of an integration as such...the integral definition you give above seems different from the linked definition which seems to require the second function have a differently-structured domain...plugging "dy" into a function argument is just way-too-scary for me.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 10:53


















3












$begingroup$


Let





  • $(Omega,mathcal A,operatorname P)$ be a probability space


  • $(mathcal F_t)_{tge0}$ be a filtration on $(Omega,mathcal A)$


  • $E$ be a Polish space and $mathcal E:=mathcal B(E)$


  • $(X_t)_{tge0}$ be an $E$-valued $mathcal F$-Markov process on $(Omega,mathcal A,operatorname P)$


  • $kappa_{s,:t}$ be a regular version of the conditional probability of $X_t$ given $X_s$, i.e. $kappa_{s,:t}$ is a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$ with $$operatorname Pleft[X_tin Bmid X_sright]=kappa_{s,:t}(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely for all }Binmathcal Etag1$$ for $s,tge0$


By the Markov property and $(1)$, $$operatorname Pleft[X_tin Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_{s,:t}(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely for all }Binmathcal Etext{ and }0le sle t.tag2$$




Usually, we want $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ to satisfy the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation $$kappa_{r,:t}=kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t},tag3$$ where the right-hand side denotes the composition of transiton kernels, for all $0le rle sle t$. However, with the definition of $kappa_{s,:t}$ as the conditional probability of $X_t$ given $X_s$, we've only got$^1$ $$kappa_{r,:t}(x,B)=(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B);;;text{for all }Binmathcal Etext{ and }operatorname Pcirc:X_r^{-1}text{-almost all }xin Etag4$$ for all $0le sle t$. However, in the literature, one is usually assuming that $(2)$ and $(3)$ hold together. Why is that possible?




I could imagine that the reason is the following: Since $E$ is Polish, given $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ with $(3)$ there is always a Markov process $tilde X$ on an other probability space with transition semigroup $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ and initial distribution $operatorname Pcirc:X_0^{-1}$. Is that the correct argument?





$^1$ Note that there is a crucial selection of a common null set for all $B$ happening in $(4)$. I guess this is legitimate as long as $mathcal E$ is countably generated. Maybe someone could comment on this.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$












  • $begingroup$
    Something seems amiss in equation (3), as it would have a stray X_s variable on the right that is not on the left. If we stick to countable state space then (3) should be augmented by summing over the intermediate states x_s
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 1:09










  • $begingroup$
    @Michael What should be missing in equation $(3)$? The right-hand side is the composition of $kappa_{r,:s}$ and $kappa_{s,:t}$, which is again a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Jan 21 at 9:12












  • $begingroup$
    As I mentioned about summing over intermediate states for countable state spaces, $$ P[X_{r+s+t} = j| X_r=i] = sum_{w in S}P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i] neq underbrace{P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i]}_{mbox{stray $w$ index}}$$ Now it seems to me that writing a sum/integral/inner-product ("composition?") as if it is a multiplication leaves a lot of room for confusion.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 10:47












  • $begingroup$
    @Michael Actually, I have no idea what you mean. Are you saying that $kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t}$ is a confusing notation for the composition or are you saying that the whole concept of composition of transition kernels is confusing? Just to be sure, the definition is: $$(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B):=intkappa_{r,:s}(x,{rm d}y)kappa_{s,:t}(y,B);;;text{for }(x,B)in Etimesmathcal E.$$
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Jan 21 at 10:47










  • $begingroup$
    All of the above and more: $k_{r,s}k_{s,t}$ seems a multiplication of two scalar-valued functions...I would assume a "composition" is when you plug the output of a function into the input of another, like $f(g(x))$...I would not think of an integration as such...the integral definition you give above seems different from the linked definition which seems to require the second function have a differently-structured domain...plugging "dy" into a function argument is just way-too-scary for me.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 10:53
















3












3








3





$begingroup$


Let





  • $(Omega,mathcal A,operatorname P)$ be a probability space


  • $(mathcal F_t)_{tge0}$ be a filtration on $(Omega,mathcal A)$


  • $E$ be a Polish space and $mathcal E:=mathcal B(E)$


  • $(X_t)_{tge0}$ be an $E$-valued $mathcal F$-Markov process on $(Omega,mathcal A,operatorname P)$


  • $kappa_{s,:t}$ be a regular version of the conditional probability of $X_t$ given $X_s$, i.e. $kappa_{s,:t}$ is a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$ with $$operatorname Pleft[X_tin Bmid X_sright]=kappa_{s,:t}(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely for all }Binmathcal Etag1$$ for $s,tge0$


By the Markov property and $(1)$, $$operatorname Pleft[X_tin Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_{s,:t}(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely for all }Binmathcal Etext{ and }0le sle t.tag2$$




Usually, we want $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ to satisfy the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation $$kappa_{r,:t}=kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t},tag3$$ where the right-hand side denotes the composition of transiton kernels, for all $0le rle sle t$. However, with the definition of $kappa_{s,:t}$ as the conditional probability of $X_t$ given $X_s$, we've only got$^1$ $$kappa_{r,:t}(x,B)=(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B);;;text{for all }Binmathcal Etext{ and }operatorname Pcirc:X_r^{-1}text{-almost all }xin Etag4$$ for all $0le sle t$. However, in the literature, one is usually assuming that $(2)$ and $(3)$ hold together. Why is that possible?




I could imagine that the reason is the following: Since $E$ is Polish, given $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ with $(3)$ there is always a Markov process $tilde X$ on an other probability space with transition semigroup $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ and initial distribution $operatorname Pcirc:X_0^{-1}$. Is that the correct argument?





$^1$ Note that there is a crucial selection of a common null set for all $B$ happening in $(4)$. I guess this is legitimate as long as $mathcal E$ is countably generated. Maybe someone could comment on this.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$




Let





  • $(Omega,mathcal A,operatorname P)$ be a probability space


  • $(mathcal F_t)_{tge0}$ be a filtration on $(Omega,mathcal A)$


  • $E$ be a Polish space and $mathcal E:=mathcal B(E)$


  • $(X_t)_{tge0}$ be an $E$-valued $mathcal F$-Markov process on $(Omega,mathcal A,operatorname P)$


  • $kappa_{s,:t}$ be a regular version of the conditional probability of $X_t$ given $X_s$, i.e. $kappa_{s,:t}$ is a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$ with $$operatorname Pleft[X_tin Bmid X_sright]=kappa_{s,:t}(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely for all }Binmathcal Etag1$$ for $s,tge0$


By the Markov property and $(1)$, $$operatorname Pleft[X_tin Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_{s,:t}(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely for all }Binmathcal Etext{ and }0le sle t.tag2$$




Usually, we want $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ to satisfy the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation $$kappa_{r,:t}=kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t},tag3$$ where the right-hand side denotes the composition of transiton kernels, for all $0le rle sle t$. However, with the definition of $kappa_{s,:t}$ as the conditional probability of $X_t$ given $X_s$, we've only got$^1$ $$kappa_{r,:t}(x,B)=(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B);;;text{for all }Binmathcal Etext{ and }operatorname Pcirc:X_r^{-1}text{-almost all }xin Etag4$$ for all $0le sle t$. However, in the literature, one is usually assuming that $(2)$ and $(3)$ hold together. Why is that possible?




I could imagine that the reason is the following: Since $E$ is Polish, given $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ with $(3)$ there is always a Markov process $tilde X$ on an other probability space with transition semigroup $(kappa_{s,:t}:0le sle t)$ and initial distribution $operatorname Pcirc:X_0^{-1}$. Is that the correct argument?





$^1$ Note that there is a crucial selection of a common null set for all $B$ happening in $(4)$. I guess this is legitimate as long as $mathcal E$ is countably generated. Maybe someone could comment on this.







probability-theory measure-theory stochastic-processes markov-chains markov-process






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share|cite|improve this question













share|cite|improve this question




share|cite|improve this question








edited Jan 21 at 16:07







0xbadf00d

















asked Jan 20 at 23:27









0xbadf00d0xbadf00d

1,97541531




1,97541531












  • $begingroup$
    Something seems amiss in equation (3), as it would have a stray X_s variable on the right that is not on the left. If we stick to countable state space then (3) should be augmented by summing over the intermediate states x_s
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 1:09










  • $begingroup$
    @Michael What should be missing in equation $(3)$? The right-hand side is the composition of $kappa_{r,:s}$ and $kappa_{s,:t}$, which is again a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Jan 21 at 9:12












  • $begingroup$
    As I mentioned about summing over intermediate states for countable state spaces, $$ P[X_{r+s+t} = j| X_r=i] = sum_{w in S}P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i] neq underbrace{P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i]}_{mbox{stray $w$ index}}$$ Now it seems to me that writing a sum/integral/inner-product ("composition?") as if it is a multiplication leaves a lot of room for confusion.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 10:47












  • $begingroup$
    @Michael Actually, I have no idea what you mean. Are you saying that $kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t}$ is a confusing notation for the composition or are you saying that the whole concept of composition of transition kernels is confusing? Just to be sure, the definition is: $$(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B):=intkappa_{r,:s}(x,{rm d}y)kappa_{s,:t}(y,B);;;text{for }(x,B)in Etimesmathcal E.$$
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Jan 21 at 10:47










  • $begingroup$
    All of the above and more: $k_{r,s}k_{s,t}$ seems a multiplication of two scalar-valued functions...I would assume a "composition" is when you plug the output of a function into the input of another, like $f(g(x))$...I would not think of an integration as such...the integral definition you give above seems different from the linked definition which seems to require the second function have a differently-structured domain...plugging "dy" into a function argument is just way-too-scary for me.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 10:53




















  • $begingroup$
    Something seems amiss in equation (3), as it would have a stray X_s variable on the right that is not on the left. If we stick to countable state space then (3) should be augmented by summing over the intermediate states x_s
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 1:09










  • $begingroup$
    @Michael What should be missing in equation $(3)$? The right-hand side is the composition of $kappa_{r,:s}$ and $kappa_{s,:t}$, which is again a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Jan 21 at 9:12












  • $begingroup$
    As I mentioned about summing over intermediate states for countable state spaces, $$ P[X_{r+s+t} = j| X_r=i] = sum_{w in S}P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i] neq underbrace{P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i]}_{mbox{stray $w$ index}}$$ Now it seems to me that writing a sum/integral/inner-product ("composition?") as if it is a multiplication leaves a lot of room for confusion.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 10:47












  • $begingroup$
    @Michael Actually, I have no idea what you mean. Are you saying that $kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t}$ is a confusing notation for the composition or are you saying that the whole concept of composition of transition kernels is confusing? Just to be sure, the definition is: $$(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B):=intkappa_{r,:s}(x,{rm d}y)kappa_{s,:t}(y,B);;;text{for }(x,B)in Etimesmathcal E.$$
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Jan 21 at 10:47










  • $begingroup$
    All of the above and more: $k_{r,s}k_{s,t}$ seems a multiplication of two scalar-valued functions...I would assume a "composition" is when you plug the output of a function into the input of another, like $f(g(x))$...I would not think of an integration as such...the integral definition you give above seems different from the linked definition which seems to require the second function have a differently-structured domain...plugging "dy" into a function argument is just way-too-scary for me.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 10:53


















$begingroup$
Something seems amiss in equation (3), as it would have a stray X_s variable on the right that is not on the left. If we stick to countable state space then (3) should be augmented by summing over the intermediate states x_s
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 21 at 1:09




$begingroup$
Something seems amiss in equation (3), as it would have a stray X_s variable on the right that is not on the left. If we stick to countable state space then (3) should be augmented by summing over the intermediate states x_s
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 21 at 1:09












$begingroup$
@Michael What should be missing in equation $(3)$? The right-hand side is the composition of $kappa_{r,:s}$ and $kappa_{s,:t}$, which is again a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$.
$endgroup$
– 0xbadf00d
Jan 21 at 9:12






$begingroup$
@Michael What should be missing in equation $(3)$? The right-hand side is the composition of $kappa_{r,:s}$ and $kappa_{s,:t}$, which is again a Markov kernel on $(E,mathcal E)$.
$endgroup$
– 0xbadf00d
Jan 21 at 9:12














$begingroup$
As I mentioned about summing over intermediate states for countable state spaces, $$ P[X_{r+s+t} = j| X_r=i] = sum_{w in S}P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i] neq underbrace{P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i]}_{mbox{stray $w$ index}}$$ Now it seems to me that writing a sum/integral/inner-product ("composition?") as if it is a multiplication leaves a lot of room for confusion.
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 21 at 10:47






$begingroup$
As I mentioned about summing over intermediate states for countable state spaces, $$ P[X_{r+s+t} = j| X_r=i] = sum_{w in S}P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i] neq underbrace{P[X_{r+s+t}=j|X_{r+s}=w]P[X_{r+s}=w|X_r=i]}_{mbox{stray $w$ index}}$$ Now it seems to me that writing a sum/integral/inner-product ("composition?") as if it is a multiplication leaves a lot of room for confusion.
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 21 at 10:47














$begingroup$
@Michael Actually, I have no idea what you mean. Are you saying that $kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t}$ is a confusing notation for the composition or are you saying that the whole concept of composition of transition kernels is confusing? Just to be sure, the definition is: $$(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B):=intkappa_{r,:s}(x,{rm d}y)kappa_{s,:t}(y,B);;;text{for }(x,B)in Etimesmathcal E.$$
$endgroup$
– 0xbadf00d
Jan 21 at 10:47




$begingroup$
@Michael Actually, I have no idea what you mean. Are you saying that $kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t}$ is a confusing notation for the composition or are you saying that the whole concept of composition of transition kernels is confusing? Just to be sure, the definition is: $$(kappa_{r,:s}kappa_{s,:t})(x,B):=intkappa_{r,:s}(x,{rm d}y)kappa_{s,:t}(y,B);;;text{for }(x,B)in Etimesmathcal E.$$
$endgroup$
– 0xbadf00d
Jan 21 at 10:47












$begingroup$
All of the above and more: $k_{r,s}k_{s,t}$ seems a multiplication of two scalar-valued functions...I would assume a "composition" is when you plug the output of a function into the input of another, like $f(g(x))$...I would not think of an integration as such...the integral definition you give above seems different from the linked definition which seems to require the second function have a differently-structured domain...plugging "dy" into a function argument is just way-too-scary for me.
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 21 at 10:53






$begingroup$
All of the above and more: $k_{r,s}k_{s,t}$ seems a multiplication of two scalar-valued functions...I would assume a "composition" is when you plug the output of a function into the input of another, like $f(g(x))$...I would not think of an integration as such...the integral definition you give above seems different from the linked definition which seems to require the second function have a differently-structured domain...plugging "dy" into a function argument is just way-too-scary for me.
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 21 at 10:53












1 Answer
1






active

oldest

votes


















0












$begingroup$

My (perhaps naive) interpretation of your question is that it deals with "surely" versus "almost surely" issues. For fixed times $r < s < t$, the following equation only holds in an “almost sure” sense:
$$ k_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 1)$$
To see this, suppose it holds surely (for all corresponding points $x$ and sets $B$ for which we can evaluate $k_{r,t}(x,B)$). Let $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ be another “version” of $k_{r,t}$ that is different from $k_{r,t}$ on a set of measure 0. Then we want to also have
$$tilde{k}_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 2)$$ surely, but this is impossible since we have changed the left-hand-side of equation (1) without changing the right-hand-side. The only way it makes sense is that both equations (1) and (2) are only guaranteed to hold in an almost-sure sense.



An example way to change $k_{r,t}$ to a different version $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ is this: Suppose we can identify an $x^*$ such that $P[X_r=x^*]=0$. Then define for all corresponding $x, B$:
$$ tilde{k}_{r,t}(x,B) = left{ begin{array}{ll}
k_{r,t}(x,B) &mbox{ if $x neq x^*$} \
mu(B) & mbox{ if $x =x^*$}
end{array}
right.$$

where $mu(B)$ is some measure over events $B$ that is different from $k_{r,t}(x^*,B)$.






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$













  • $begingroup$
    Alternatively, perhaps your question deals generally with the facts (i) $P[f(X)neq g(X)]=0$ if and only if $P[X^{-1}({x : f(x) = g(x)})]=1$; (ii) If $h(x)$ and $r(x)$ differ only on a set of measure zero then $int h(x) dmu = int r(x) dmu$.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 21:16










  • $begingroup$
    Another interpretation of your question is that, instead of fixing times $r,s,t$ and working with those in the distribution equations, you are packaging the uncountably infinite set of times in the real number line as part of the "almost surely" statements (which seems to be overkill). If none of these, then I do not know what you are concerned with and/or how you feel (2), (3), (4) conflict.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 22 at 14:28












  • $begingroup$
    Sorry for my late response. Look, the problem is the following: Assume for simplicity that $X$ is time-homogeneous. Then, $$operatorname Pleft[X_{s+t}in Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_t(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely}$$ for all $Binmathcal E$ and $s,tge0$ (where $kappa_t:=kappa_{0,:t}$). Since $mathcal E$ is countably generated, we are able to conclude $$kappa_{s+t}(x,;cdot;)=(kappa_skappa_t)(x,;cdot;);;;text{for }operatorname Pcirc X_0^{-1}text{-all }xin E$$ for all $s,tge0$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:16










  • $begingroup$
    However, in every book I know, it's always assumed that $kappa_{s+t}=kappa_skappa_t$ (everywhere). Kallenberg, for example, is explicitly mentioning that he's assuming this on page 143 of his book (Foundations of mondern probability, 2nd edition). It's obvious that this won't hold. So, the question is why it's legitimate to assume it.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:19













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$begingroup$

My (perhaps naive) interpretation of your question is that it deals with "surely" versus "almost surely" issues. For fixed times $r < s < t$, the following equation only holds in an “almost sure” sense:
$$ k_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 1)$$
To see this, suppose it holds surely (for all corresponding points $x$ and sets $B$ for which we can evaluate $k_{r,t}(x,B)$). Let $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ be another “version” of $k_{r,t}$ that is different from $k_{r,t}$ on a set of measure 0. Then we want to also have
$$tilde{k}_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 2)$$ surely, but this is impossible since we have changed the left-hand-side of equation (1) without changing the right-hand-side. The only way it makes sense is that both equations (1) and (2) are only guaranteed to hold in an almost-sure sense.



An example way to change $k_{r,t}$ to a different version $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ is this: Suppose we can identify an $x^*$ such that $P[X_r=x^*]=0$. Then define for all corresponding $x, B$:
$$ tilde{k}_{r,t}(x,B) = left{ begin{array}{ll}
k_{r,t}(x,B) &mbox{ if $x neq x^*$} \
mu(B) & mbox{ if $x =x^*$}
end{array}
right.$$

where $mu(B)$ is some measure over events $B$ that is different from $k_{r,t}(x^*,B)$.






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$













  • $begingroup$
    Alternatively, perhaps your question deals generally with the facts (i) $P[f(X)neq g(X)]=0$ if and only if $P[X^{-1}({x : f(x) = g(x)})]=1$; (ii) If $h(x)$ and $r(x)$ differ only on a set of measure zero then $int h(x) dmu = int r(x) dmu$.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 21:16










  • $begingroup$
    Another interpretation of your question is that, instead of fixing times $r,s,t$ and working with those in the distribution equations, you are packaging the uncountably infinite set of times in the real number line as part of the "almost surely" statements (which seems to be overkill). If none of these, then I do not know what you are concerned with and/or how you feel (2), (3), (4) conflict.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 22 at 14:28












  • $begingroup$
    Sorry for my late response. Look, the problem is the following: Assume for simplicity that $X$ is time-homogeneous. Then, $$operatorname Pleft[X_{s+t}in Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_t(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely}$$ for all $Binmathcal E$ and $s,tge0$ (where $kappa_t:=kappa_{0,:t}$). Since $mathcal E$ is countably generated, we are able to conclude $$kappa_{s+t}(x,;cdot;)=(kappa_skappa_t)(x,;cdot;);;;text{for }operatorname Pcirc X_0^{-1}text{-all }xin E$$ for all $s,tge0$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:16










  • $begingroup$
    However, in every book I know, it's always assumed that $kappa_{s+t}=kappa_skappa_t$ (everywhere). Kallenberg, for example, is explicitly mentioning that he's assuming this on page 143 of his book (Foundations of mondern probability, 2nd edition). It's obvious that this won't hold. So, the question is why it's legitimate to assume it.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:19


















0












$begingroup$

My (perhaps naive) interpretation of your question is that it deals with "surely" versus "almost surely" issues. For fixed times $r < s < t$, the following equation only holds in an “almost sure” sense:
$$ k_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 1)$$
To see this, suppose it holds surely (for all corresponding points $x$ and sets $B$ for which we can evaluate $k_{r,t}(x,B)$). Let $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ be another “version” of $k_{r,t}$ that is different from $k_{r,t}$ on a set of measure 0. Then we want to also have
$$tilde{k}_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 2)$$ surely, but this is impossible since we have changed the left-hand-side of equation (1) without changing the right-hand-side. The only way it makes sense is that both equations (1) and (2) are only guaranteed to hold in an almost-sure sense.



An example way to change $k_{r,t}$ to a different version $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ is this: Suppose we can identify an $x^*$ such that $P[X_r=x^*]=0$. Then define for all corresponding $x, B$:
$$ tilde{k}_{r,t}(x,B) = left{ begin{array}{ll}
k_{r,t}(x,B) &mbox{ if $x neq x^*$} \
mu(B) & mbox{ if $x =x^*$}
end{array}
right.$$

where $mu(B)$ is some measure over events $B$ that is different from $k_{r,t}(x^*,B)$.






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$













  • $begingroup$
    Alternatively, perhaps your question deals generally with the facts (i) $P[f(X)neq g(X)]=0$ if and only if $P[X^{-1}({x : f(x) = g(x)})]=1$; (ii) If $h(x)$ and $r(x)$ differ only on a set of measure zero then $int h(x) dmu = int r(x) dmu$.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 21:16










  • $begingroup$
    Another interpretation of your question is that, instead of fixing times $r,s,t$ and working with those in the distribution equations, you are packaging the uncountably infinite set of times in the real number line as part of the "almost surely" statements (which seems to be overkill). If none of these, then I do not know what you are concerned with and/or how you feel (2), (3), (4) conflict.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 22 at 14:28












  • $begingroup$
    Sorry for my late response. Look, the problem is the following: Assume for simplicity that $X$ is time-homogeneous. Then, $$operatorname Pleft[X_{s+t}in Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_t(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely}$$ for all $Binmathcal E$ and $s,tge0$ (where $kappa_t:=kappa_{0,:t}$). Since $mathcal E$ is countably generated, we are able to conclude $$kappa_{s+t}(x,;cdot;)=(kappa_skappa_t)(x,;cdot;);;;text{for }operatorname Pcirc X_0^{-1}text{-all }xin E$$ for all $s,tge0$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:16










  • $begingroup$
    However, in every book I know, it's always assumed that $kappa_{s+t}=kappa_skappa_t$ (everywhere). Kallenberg, for example, is explicitly mentioning that he's assuming this on page 143 of his book (Foundations of mondern probability, 2nd edition). It's obvious that this won't hold. So, the question is why it's legitimate to assume it.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:19
















0












0








0





$begingroup$

My (perhaps naive) interpretation of your question is that it deals with "surely" versus "almost surely" issues. For fixed times $r < s < t$, the following equation only holds in an “almost sure” sense:
$$ k_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 1)$$
To see this, suppose it holds surely (for all corresponding points $x$ and sets $B$ for which we can evaluate $k_{r,t}(x,B)$). Let $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ be another “version” of $k_{r,t}$ that is different from $k_{r,t}$ on a set of measure 0. Then we want to also have
$$tilde{k}_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 2)$$ surely, but this is impossible since we have changed the left-hand-side of equation (1) without changing the right-hand-side. The only way it makes sense is that both equations (1) and (2) are only guaranteed to hold in an almost-sure sense.



An example way to change $k_{r,t}$ to a different version $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ is this: Suppose we can identify an $x^*$ such that $P[X_r=x^*]=0$. Then define for all corresponding $x, B$:
$$ tilde{k}_{r,t}(x,B) = left{ begin{array}{ll}
k_{r,t}(x,B) &mbox{ if $x neq x^*$} \
mu(B) & mbox{ if $x =x^*$}
end{array}
right.$$

where $mu(B)$ is some measure over events $B$ that is different from $k_{r,t}(x^*,B)$.






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$



My (perhaps naive) interpretation of your question is that it deals with "surely" versus "almost surely" issues. For fixed times $r < s < t$, the following equation only holds in an “almost sure” sense:
$$ k_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 1)$$
To see this, suppose it holds surely (for all corresponding points $x$ and sets $B$ for which we can evaluate $k_{r,t}(x,B)$). Let $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ be another “version” of $k_{r,t}$ that is different from $k_{r,t}$ on a set of measure 0. Then we want to also have
$$tilde{k}_{r,t} = k_{r,s} cdot k_{s,t} quad (Eq. 2)$$ surely, but this is impossible since we have changed the left-hand-side of equation (1) without changing the right-hand-side. The only way it makes sense is that both equations (1) and (2) are only guaranteed to hold in an almost-sure sense.



An example way to change $k_{r,t}$ to a different version $tilde{k}_{r,t}$ is this: Suppose we can identify an $x^*$ such that $P[X_r=x^*]=0$. Then define for all corresponding $x, B$:
$$ tilde{k}_{r,t}(x,B) = left{ begin{array}{ll}
k_{r,t}(x,B) &mbox{ if $x neq x^*$} \
mu(B) & mbox{ if $x =x^*$}
end{array}
right.$$

where $mu(B)$ is some measure over events $B$ that is different from $k_{r,t}(x^*,B)$.







share|cite|improve this answer














share|cite|improve this answer



share|cite|improve this answer








edited Jan 21 at 21:19

























answered Jan 21 at 20:55









MichaelMichael

12.9k11429




12.9k11429












  • $begingroup$
    Alternatively, perhaps your question deals generally with the facts (i) $P[f(X)neq g(X)]=0$ if and only if $P[X^{-1}({x : f(x) = g(x)})]=1$; (ii) If $h(x)$ and $r(x)$ differ only on a set of measure zero then $int h(x) dmu = int r(x) dmu$.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 21:16










  • $begingroup$
    Another interpretation of your question is that, instead of fixing times $r,s,t$ and working with those in the distribution equations, you are packaging the uncountably infinite set of times in the real number line as part of the "almost surely" statements (which seems to be overkill). If none of these, then I do not know what you are concerned with and/or how you feel (2), (3), (4) conflict.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 22 at 14:28












  • $begingroup$
    Sorry for my late response. Look, the problem is the following: Assume for simplicity that $X$ is time-homogeneous. Then, $$operatorname Pleft[X_{s+t}in Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_t(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely}$$ for all $Binmathcal E$ and $s,tge0$ (where $kappa_t:=kappa_{0,:t}$). Since $mathcal E$ is countably generated, we are able to conclude $$kappa_{s+t}(x,;cdot;)=(kappa_skappa_t)(x,;cdot;);;;text{for }operatorname Pcirc X_0^{-1}text{-all }xin E$$ for all $s,tge0$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:16










  • $begingroup$
    However, in every book I know, it's always assumed that $kappa_{s+t}=kappa_skappa_t$ (everywhere). Kallenberg, for example, is explicitly mentioning that he's assuming this on page 143 of his book (Foundations of mondern probability, 2nd edition). It's obvious that this won't hold. So, the question is why it's legitimate to assume it.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:19




















  • $begingroup$
    Alternatively, perhaps your question deals generally with the facts (i) $P[f(X)neq g(X)]=0$ if and only if $P[X^{-1}({x : f(x) = g(x)})]=1$; (ii) If $h(x)$ and $r(x)$ differ only on a set of measure zero then $int h(x) dmu = int r(x) dmu$.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 21 at 21:16










  • $begingroup$
    Another interpretation of your question is that, instead of fixing times $r,s,t$ and working with those in the distribution equations, you are packaging the uncountably infinite set of times in the real number line as part of the "almost surely" statements (which seems to be overkill). If none of these, then I do not know what you are concerned with and/or how you feel (2), (3), (4) conflict.
    $endgroup$
    – Michael
    Jan 22 at 14:28












  • $begingroup$
    Sorry for my late response. Look, the problem is the following: Assume for simplicity that $X$ is time-homogeneous. Then, $$operatorname Pleft[X_{s+t}in Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_t(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely}$$ for all $Binmathcal E$ and $s,tge0$ (where $kappa_t:=kappa_{0,:t}$). Since $mathcal E$ is countably generated, we are able to conclude $$kappa_{s+t}(x,;cdot;)=(kappa_skappa_t)(x,;cdot;);;;text{for }operatorname Pcirc X_0^{-1}text{-all }xin E$$ for all $s,tge0$.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:16










  • $begingroup$
    However, in every book I know, it's always assumed that $kappa_{s+t}=kappa_skappa_t$ (everywhere). Kallenberg, for example, is explicitly mentioning that he's assuming this on page 143 of his book (Foundations of mondern probability, 2nd edition). It's obvious that this won't hold. So, the question is why it's legitimate to assume it.
    $endgroup$
    – 0xbadf00d
    Feb 18 at 15:19


















$begingroup$
Alternatively, perhaps your question deals generally with the facts (i) $P[f(X)neq g(X)]=0$ if and only if $P[X^{-1}({x : f(x) = g(x)})]=1$; (ii) If $h(x)$ and $r(x)$ differ only on a set of measure zero then $int h(x) dmu = int r(x) dmu$.
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 21 at 21:16




$begingroup$
Alternatively, perhaps your question deals generally with the facts (i) $P[f(X)neq g(X)]=0$ if and only if $P[X^{-1}({x : f(x) = g(x)})]=1$; (ii) If $h(x)$ and $r(x)$ differ only on a set of measure zero then $int h(x) dmu = int r(x) dmu$.
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 21 at 21:16












$begingroup$
Another interpretation of your question is that, instead of fixing times $r,s,t$ and working with those in the distribution equations, you are packaging the uncountably infinite set of times in the real number line as part of the "almost surely" statements (which seems to be overkill). If none of these, then I do not know what you are concerned with and/or how you feel (2), (3), (4) conflict.
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 22 at 14:28






$begingroup$
Another interpretation of your question is that, instead of fixing times $r,s,t$ and working with those in the distribution equations, you are packaging the uncountably infinite set of times in the real number line as part of the "almost surely" statements (which seems to be overkill). If none of these, then I do not know what you are concerned with and/or how you feel (2), (3), (4) conflict.
$endgroup$
– Michael
Jan 22 at 14:28














$begingroup$
Sorry for my late response. Look, the problem is the following: Assume for simplicity that $X$ is time-homogeneous. Then, $$operatorname Pleft[X_{s+t}in Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_t(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely}$$ for all $Binmathcal E$ and $s,tge0$ (where $kappa_t:=kappa_{0,:t}$). Since $mathcal E$ is countably generated, we are able to conclude $$kappa_{s+t}(x,;cdot;)=(kappa_skappa_t)(x,;cdot;);;;text{for }operatorname Pcirc X_0^{-1}text{-all }xin E$$ for all $s,tge0$.
$endgroup$
– 0xbadf00d
Feb 18 at 15:16




$begingroup$
Sorry for my late response. Look, the problem is the following: Assume for simplicity that $X$ is time-homogeneous. Then, $$operatorname Pleft[X_{s+t}in Bmidmathcal F_sright]=kappa_t(X_s,B);;;text{almost surely}$$ for all $Binmathcal E$ and $s,tge0$ (where $kappa_t:=kappa_{0,:t}$). Since $mathcal E$ is countably generated, we are able to conclude $$kappa_{s+t}(x,;cdot;)=(kappa_skappa_t)(x,;cdot;);;;text{for }operatorname Pcirc X_0^{-1}text{-all }xin E$$ for all $s,tge0$.
$endgroup$
– 0xbadf00d
Feb 18 at 15:16












$begingroup$
However, in every book I know, it's always assumed that $kappa_{s+t}=kappa_skappa_t$ (everywhere). Kallenberg, for example, is explicitly mentioning that he's assuming this on page 143 of his book (Foundations of mondern probability, 2nd edition). It's obvious that this won't hold. So, the question is why it's legitimate to assume it.
$endgroup$
– 0xbadf00d
Feb 18 at 15:19






$begingroup$
However, in every book I know, it's always assumed that $kappa_{s+t}=kappa_skappa_t$ (everywhere). Kallenberg, for example, is explicitly mentioning that he's assuming this on page 143 of his book (Foundations of mondern probability, 2nd edition). It's obvious that this won't hold. So, the question is why it's legitimate to assume it.
$endgroup$
– 0xbadf00d
Feb 18 at 15:19




















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