Find optimal Bayesian decision based on a criterion for the posterior mean












0












$begingroup$


I recently ran into the following exercise when practicing for an exam I have about Statistical Inference. The question looks very large and complex and I'm wondering if this is actually true or if it can be solved relatively easily.



The question:




At a critical stage in the development of a new airplane, a decision
must be taken to continue or to abandon the project. The financial
viability of the project can be measured by the parameter
$thetain(0,1)$, the project being profitable if $theta>1/2$. Data
$x$ provide information about $theta$. If $theta<1/2$, the cost of continuing the project is $1/2-theta$, whereas if $theta>1/2$ it is zero. If $theta>1/2$ the cost of abandoning the project is $theta-1/2$, whereas if
$theta<1/2$ it is zero.



We denote the decision to continue the project by $d_1$ and the
decision to abandon the project by $d_2$.



Show that the optimal Bayesian decision is to continue the project if
the posterior mean of $theta$ is greater than $1/2$




My attempt: The general start to problems where we have to find Bayesian decision rules is to compute the loss functions. I found the following loss functions:



$L(theta, d_1) = begin{cases}0 &text{ if }theta > 1/2\1/2 - theta &text{ if }theta < 1/2end{cases},,,L(theta, d_2) = begin{cases}theta - 1/2 &text{ if }theta > 1/2\0 &text{ if } theta < 1/2end{cases}$



Which will allow us to compute the risk functions and this in turn could help us find the decision rule minimizes the Bayes risk, and this will be the Bayes decision rule. I'm not able to get much further than that though, since we have this tricky criterion based on the posterior mean.



How can I solve this exercise? Any tips/help are appreciated.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$








  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I gave a full answer below but if you just want a hint, think about when the expected posterior loss under $d_1$, $E(L(theta, d_1)mid x) = int L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dtheta$, is less than $E(L(theta, d_2)mid x)$.
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 8 at 23:10
















0












$begingroup$


I recently ran into the following exercise when practicing for an exam I have about Statistical Inference. The question looks very large and complex and I'm wondering if this is actually true or if it can be solved relatively easily.



The question:




At a critical stage in the development of a new airplane, a decision
must be taken to continue or to abandon the project. The financial
viability of the project can be measured by the parameter
$thetain(0,1)$, the project being profitable if $theta>1/2$. Data
$x$ provide information about $theta$. If $theta<1/2$, the cost of continuing the project is $1/2-theta$, whereas if $theta>1/2$ it is zero. If $theta>1/2$ the cost of abandoning the project is $theta-1/2$, whereas if
$theta<1/2$ it is zero.



We denote the decision to continue the project by $d_1$ and the
decision to abandon the project by $d_2$.



Show that the optimal Bayesian decision is to continue the project if
the posterior mean of $theta$ is greater than $1/2$




My attempt: The general start to problems where we have to find Bayesian decision rules is to compute the loss functions. I found the following loss functions:



$L(theta, d_1) = begin{cases}0 &text{ if }theta > 1/2\1/2 - theta &text{ if }theta < 1/2end{cases},,,L(theta, d_2) = begin{cases}theta - 1/2 &text{ if }theta > 1/2\0 &text{ if } theta < 1/2end{cases}$



Which will allow us to compute the risk functions and this in turn could help us find the decision rule minimizes the Bayes risk, and this will be the Bayes decision rule. I'm not able to get much further than that though, since we have this tricky criterion based on the posterior mean.



How can I solve this exercise? Any tips/help are appreciated.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$








  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I gave a full answer below but if you just want a hint, think about when the expected posterior loss under $d_1$, $E(L(theta, d_1)mid x) = int L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dtheta$, is less than $E(L(theta, d_2)mid x)$.
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 8 at 23:10














0












0








0





$begingroup$


I recently ran into the following exercise when practicing for an exam I have about Statistical Inference. The question looks very large and complex and I'm wondering if this is actually true or if it can be solved relatively easily.



The question:




At a critical stage in the development of a new airplane, a decision
must be taken to continue or to abandon the project. The financial
viability of the project can be measured by the parameter
$thetain(0,1)$, the project being profitable if $theta>1/2$. Data
$x$ provide information about $theta$. If $theta<1/2$, the cost of continuing the project is $1/2-theta$, whereas if $theta>1/2$ it is zero. If $theta>1/2$ the cost of abandoning the project is $theta-1/2$, whereas if
$theta<1/2$ it is zero.



We denote the decision to continue the project by $d_1$ and the
decision to abandon the project by $d_2$.



Show that the optimal Bayesian decision is to continue the project if
the posterior mean of $theta$ is greater than $1/2$




My attempt: The general start to problems where we have to find Bayesian decision rules is to compute the loss functions. I found the following loss functions:



$L(theta, d_1) = begin{cases}0 &text{ if }theta > 1/2\1/2 - theta &text{ if }theta < 1/2end{cases},,,L(theta, d_2) = begin{cases}theta - 1/2 &text{ if }theta > 1/2\0 &text{ if } theta < 1/2end{cases}$



Which will allow us to compute the risk functions and this in turn could help us find the decision rule minimizes the Bayes risk, and this will be the Bayes decision rule. I'm not able to get much further than that though, since we have this tricky criterion based on the posterior mean.



How can I solve this exercise? Any tips/help are appreciated.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$




I recently ran into the following exercise when practicing for an exam I have about Statistical Inference. The question looks very large and complex and I'm wondering if this is actually true or if it can be solved relatively easily.



The question:




At a critical stage in the development of a new airplane, a decision
must be taken to continue or to abandon the project. The financial
viability of the project can be measured by the parameter
$thetain(0,1)$, the project being profitable if $theta>1/2$. Data
$x$ provide information about $theta$. If $theta<1/2$, the cost of continuing the project is $1/2-theta$, whereas if $theta>1/2$ it is zero. If $theta>1/2$ the cost of abandoning the project is $theta-1/2$, whereas if
$theta<1/2$ it is zero.



We denote the decision to continue the project by $d_1$ and the
decision to abandon the project by $d_2$.



Show that the optimal Bayesian decision is to continue the project if
the posterior mean of $theta$ is greater than $1/2$




My attempt: The general start to problems where we have to find Bayesian decision rules is to compute the loss functions. I found the following loss functions:



$L(theta, d_1) = begin{cases}0 &text{ if }theta > 1/2\1/2 - theta &text{ if }theta < 1/2end{cases},,,L(theta, d_2) = begin{cases}theta - 1/2 &text{ if }theta > 1/2\0 &text{ if } theta < 1/2end{cases}$



Which will allow us to compute the risk functions and this in turn could help us find the decision rule minimizes the Bayes risk, and this will be the Bayes decision rule. I'm not able to get much further than that though, since we have this tricky criterion based on the posterior mean.



How can I solve this exercise? Any tips/help are appreciated.







statistics probability-distributions statistical-inference bayesian descriptive-statistics






share|cite|improve this question















share|cite|improve this question













share|cite|improve this question




share|cite|improve this question








edited Jan 8 at 21:45







S. Crim

















asked Jan 8 at 20:42









S. CrimS. Crim

35612




35612








  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I gave a full answer below but if you just want a hint, think about when the expected posterior loss under $d_1$, $E(L(theta, d_1)mid x) = int L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dtheta$, is less than $E(L(theta, d_2)mid x)$.
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 8 at 23:10














  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I gave a full answer below but if you just want a hint, think about when the expected posterior loss under $d_1$, $E(L(theta, d_1)mid x) = int L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dtheta$, is less than $E(L(theta, d_2)mid x)$.
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 8 at 23:10








1




1




$begingroup$
I gave a full answer below but if you just want a hint, think about when the expected posterior loss under $d_1$, $E(L(theta, d_1)mid x) = int L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dtheta$, is less than $E(L(theta, d_2)mid x)$.
$endgroup$
– Alex
Jan 8 at 23:10




$begingroup$
I gave a full answer below but if you just want a hint, think about when the expected posterior loss under $d_1$, $E(L(theta, d_1)mid x) = int L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dtheta$, is less than $E(L(theta, d_2)mid x)$.
$endgroup$
– Alex
Jan 8 at 23:10










1 Answer
1






active

oldest

votes


















1












$begingroup$

The Bayes risk for continuing the project, $E(L(theta, d_1) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dx = int_0^{1/2}left(frac{1}{2} - thetaright)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$



And the Bayes risk for cancelling the project, $E(L(theta, d_2) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_2) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_2) p(theta mid x) dx = int_{1/2}^{1}left(theta - frac{1}{2}right)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
The Bayes decision rule is to continue the project when the Bayes risk of continuing is less than the risk of cancelling, i.e. when
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) < E(L(theta, d_2) mid x).$$
This is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta + frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta + int_{1/2}^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
We know that $int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta = 1$, and that $int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta = E(theta mid x)$, so the Bayes decision rule is that we should continue with the project whenever
$$frac{1}{2} < E(theta mid x).$$






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$









  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I came so close with your hint but got stuck in the end anyway, so thanks alot for the full answer! Much appreciated!
    $endgroup$
    – S. Crim
    Jan 9 at 14:04






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Glad I could help!
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 10 at 16:53











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1












$begingroup$

The Bayes risk for continuing the project, $E(L(theta, d_1) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dx = int_0^{1/2}left(frac{1}{2} - thetaright)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$



And the Bayes risk for cancelling the project, $E(L(theta, d_2) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_2) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_2) p(theta mid x) dx = int_{1/2}^{1}left(theta - frac{1}{2}right)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
The Bayes decision rule is to continue the project when the Bayes risk of continuing is less than the risk of cancelling, i.e. when
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) < E(L(theta, d_2) mid x).$$
This is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta + frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta + int_{1/2}^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
We know that $int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta = 1$, and that $int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta = E(theta mid x)$, so the Bayes decision rule is that we should continue with the project whenever
$$frac{1}{2} < E(theta mid x).$$






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$









  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I came so close with your hint but got stuck in the end anyway, so thanks alot for the full answer! Much appreciated!
    $endgroup$
    – S. Crim
    Jan 9 at 14:04






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Glad I could help!
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 10 at 16:53
















1












$begingroup$

The Bayes risk for continuing the project, $E(L(theta, d_1) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dx = int_0^{1/2}left(frac{1}{2} - thetaright)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$



And the Bayes risk for cancelling the project, $E(L(theta, d_2) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_2) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_2) p(theta mid x) dx = int_{1/2}^{1}left(theta - frac{1}{2}right)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
The Bayes decision rule is to continue the project when the Bayes risk of continuing is less than the risk of cancelling, i.e. when
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) < E(L(theta, d_2) mid x).$$
This is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta + frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta + int_{1/2}^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
We know that $int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta = 1$, and that $int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta = E(theta mid x)$, so the Bayes decision rule is that we should continue with the project whenever
$$frac{1}{2} < E(theta mid x).$$






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$









  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I came so close with your hint but got stuck in the end anyway, so thanks alot for the full answer! Much appreciated!
    $endgroup$
    – S. Crim
    Jan 9 at 14:04






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Glad I could help!
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 10 at 16:53














1












1








1





$begingroup$

The Bayes risk for continuing the project, $E(L(theta, d_1) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dx = int_0^{1/2}left(frac{1}{2} - thetaright)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$



And the Bayes risk for cancelling the project, $E(L(theta, d_2) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_2) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_2) p(theta mid x) dx = int_{1/2}^{1}left(theta - frac{1}{2}right)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
The Bayes decision rule is to continue the project when the Bayes risk of continuing is less than the risk of cancelling, i.e. when
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) < E(L(theta, d_2) mid x).$$
This is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta + frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta + int_{1/2}^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
We know that $int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta = 1$, and that $int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta = E(theta mid x)$, so the Bayes decision rule is that we should continue with the project whenever
$$frac{1}{2} < E(theta mid x).$$






share|cite|improve this answer











$endgroup$



The Bayes risk for continuing the project, $E(L(theta, d_1) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_1) p(theta mid x) dx = int_0^{1/2}left(frac{1}{2} - thetaright)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$



And the Bayes risk for cancelling the project, $E(L(theta, d_2) mid x)$, is given by
$$E(L(theta, d_2) mid x) = int_0^1L(theta, d_2) p(theta mid x) dx = int_{1/2}^{1}left(theta - frac{1}{2}right)p(theta mid x) dtheta$$
$$= frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
The Bayes decision rule is to continue the project when the Bayes risk of continuing is less than the risk of cancelling, i.e. when
$$E(L(theta, d_1) mid x) < E(L(theta, d_2) mid x).$$
This is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta - int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_{1/2}^{1} theta p(theta mid x) dtheta - frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1/2} p(theta mid x) dtheta + frac{1}{2}int_{1/2}^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1/2}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta + int_{1/2}^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta,$$
which is equivalent to
$$frac{1}{2}int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta < int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta.$$
We know that $int_0^{1} p(theta mid x) dtheta = 1$, and that $int_0^{1}theta p(theta mid x) dtheta = E(theta mid x)$, so the Bayes decision rule is that we should continue with the project whenever
$$frac{1}{2} < E(theta mid x).$$







share|cite|improve this answer














share|cite|improve this answer



share|cite|improve this answer








edited Jan 8 at 22:31

























answered Jan 8 at 22:25









AlexAlex

559312




559312








  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I came so close with your hint but got stuck in the end anyway, so thanks alot for the full answer! Much appreciated!
    $endgroup$
    – S. Crim
    Jan 9 at 14:04






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Glad I could help!
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 10 at 16:53














  • 1




    $begingroup$
    I came so close with your hint but got stuck in the end anyway, so thanks alot for the full answer! Much appreciated!
    $endgroup$
    – S. Crim
    Jan 9 at 14:04






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    Glad I could help!
    $endgroup$
    – Alex
    Jan 10 at 16:53








1




1




$begingroup$
I came so close with your hint but got stuck in the end anyway, so thanks alot for the full answer! Much appreciated!
$endgroup$
– S. Crim
Jan 9 at 14:04




$begingroup$
I came so close with your hint but got stuck in the end anyway, so thanks alot for the full answer! Much appreciated!
$endgroup$
– S. Crim
Jan 9 at 14:04




1




1




$begingroup$
Glad I could help!
$endgroup$
– Alex
Jan 10 at 16:53




$begingroup$
Glad I could help!
$endgroup$
– Alex
Jan 10 at 16:53


















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